Several online sources compared rates of smoking with the trends in vaping this week. Despite a significant fall from 42% to 18% in smoking rates since the beginning of the 1960s, it ignores that there are still 42 million adult smokers in the USA waiting to quit.
The lack of support for vaping in the States is striking given the scale of suffering from cancer. In purely financial terms, smoking costs the American economy an estimated $289billion (£181billion). Revenue income from tobacco sales comes to $26billion – meaning a total conversion from smoking to vaping would save America $263billion each year.
Market investors have expressed dismay that, given the lack of Food & Drug Administration regulation, take up rates of vaping has only gone from 3% to 8% of the population.
The investment concerns, sparking the prediction of the end of vaping, comes from looking at companies selling cigalikes. Those aware of the UK data produced by Professor West and ASH UK will know that there is a constant move from Generation 1 to advanced vaping devices. Anecdotally, many new converts from smoking to vaping are skipping the cigalike stage entirely leaving the product mostly being used by dual-fuel users.
Market unease is resulting from a recent press release from the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention, and organisation keenly opposed to vaping, who claim that take up of electronic cigarettes has stalled over the last 12 month period and current vapers only stand at 2% of the population.
Given the nature of business ownership in the advanced vaping market, this is unlikely to have any effect at all – but the likes of Lorillard and Reynolds American can expect to see a drop in demand for their shares.
Investors are also running shy of the market due to uncertainty over potential regulation and the on-going accusations of it being a gateway product designed to tempt the young. The question regarding the morality of listed ecig companies is amplified for conservative fund managers due to the impact of advertising campaigns hitting 256% more children and 321% more young adults between 2011-2013.
Not so much the beginning of the end for vaping then – rather the end of the beginning for people looking to get rich quick off listed cigalike company shares. What is interesting is that the concerns being expressed by stock market analysts has gone unanswered by the large cigalike manufacturers and, with mergers due in this area, maybe we will see this sector of vaping reduced even further over the next year.