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Published in The Sunday Times. 17th Jan.
THE VACCINE IS NOT ENOUGH
The government’s ultimate strategy on the coronavirus is obscure. Public statements by ministers intimate a lifting of restrictions after priority groups are vaccinated. We consider this very dangerous.
First, it relies on the false premise that protecting the vulnerable renders the virus innocuous. Second, high levels of circulating virus, especially as vaccination rates increase, create conditions that favour the emergence of vaccine-resistant mutations. Third, while reducing mortality, it will not significantly relieve pressure on critical care, where 75% of patients are 70 or under. Fourth, it will do little to reduce prevalence of long Covid, potentially leaving tens of thousands with lasting disability. And, fifth, it is misguided to think the risk of death changes dramatically on one’s 70th birthday.
The World Health Organisation has highlighted the importance of breaking chains of transmission. This will involve intensive contact tracing and community follow-up to improve rates of isolation, as well as additional financial support for those asked to self-isolate.
The government must urgently set out a plausible and comprehensive strategy to bring cases down and keep them there.
Sir David King, chairman, Independent Sage; Professor Martin McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Professor Anthony Costello, University College London; Professor Karl Friston, University College London; Dr Zubaida Haque, member, Independent Sage; Professor Kamlesh Khunti, University of Leicester; Professor Susan Michie, University College London; Dr Tolullah Oni, University of Cambridge; Professor Christina Pagel, University College London; Professor Deenan Pillay, University College London; Professor Stephen Reicher, University of St Andrews; Professor Gabriel Scally, Royal Society of Medicine; Dr Kit Yates, University of Bath
THE VACCINE IS NOT ENOUGH
The government’s ultimate strategy on the coronavirus is obscure. Public statements by ministers intimate a lifting of restrictions after priority groups are vaccinated. We consider this very dangerous.
First, it relies on the false premise that protecting the vulnerable renders the virus innocuous. Second, high levels of circulating virus, especially as vaccination rates increase, create conditions that favour the emergence of vaccine-resistant mutations. Third, while reducing mortality, it will not significantly relieve pressure on critical care, where 75% of patients are 70 or under. Fourth, it will do little to reduce prevalence of long Covid, potentially leaving tens of thousands with lasting disability. And, fifth, it is misguided to think the risk of death changes dramatically on one’s 70th birthday.
The World Health Organisation has highlighted the importance of breaking chains of transmission. This will involve intensive contact tracing and community follow-up to improve rates of isolation, as well as additional financial support for those asked to self-isolate.
The government must urgently set out a plausible and comprehensive strategy to bring cases down and keep them there.
Sir David King, chairman, Independent Sage; Professor Martin McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Professor Anthony Costello, University College London; Professor Karl Friston, University College London; Dr Zubaida Haque, member, Independent Sage; Professor Kamlesh Khunti, University of Leicester; Professor Susan Michie, University College London; Dr Tolullah Oni, University of Cambridge; Professor Christina Pagel, University College London; Professor Deenan Pillay, University College London; Professor Stephen Reicher, University of St Andrews; Professor Gabriel Scally, Royal Society of Medicine; Dr Kit Yates, University of Bath
